e-book Merlyns Magic

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Accept Read More. Property type. Forward-Walk, Backtesting, and Inception. AlphaDroid employs Forward-Walk Progressive Tuning — the industry gold standard for performance modeling. A first period of time is used to tune the parameters of the algorithm for use in making decisions during a subsequent period of time. The first period is called backtesting and is inherently flawed because tuning is done in hindsight of the data.

The subsequent period is called forward-walk testing because it applies the tuning to an "out-of-sample" set of data as the algorithm walks forward in time, thus denying random events of any special tuning advantage. As the algorithm moves forward through the out-of-sample data it periodically pauses to re-tune itself using only past data so that it can adapt to changes in market's character or adjust to the character of new funds participating in the strategy.

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Each performance chart is thus a composite of performance estimates, including a an initial tuning period determined by backtesting, b a subsequent period of Forward-Walk Progressive Tuning, and c a final period starting at the strategy's Inception Date when its design was complete and then walking forward in real time from there.

Underlying strategies typically produce 3 to 5 month-end trades per year, as new trend leaders emerges. Trade signals are generated following the close of the last trading day of the month. Performance modeling assumes trades are executed at the close of the subsequent market day. End-of-day market data is provided by FastTrack and is back-adjusted for splits, dividends, and capital gains distributions. The charts in this document are updated daily. Portfolio Benchmarks are derived from Fidelity Asset Manager mutual funds to represent corresponding classic asset allocation portfolios.

Hypothetical model performance does not include the costs of trading fees, portfolio management fees, account management fees, or financial advisor fees. SumGrowth Strategies, LLC was founded in to make simplified high performance momentum algorithms available to independent investors through SectorSurfer and later to independent advisors through AlphaDroid. It began in when founder Scott Juds first performed a few spreadsheet experiments to determine if trends existed in market data as he was searching for a better way to invest his IRA funds.

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  8. Our mission is to develop and market high-performance investment algorithms, as tools and models, to support the needs of investment advisors and individual investors alike. The Company develops and markets high-performance investment tools and models. Our Models: Merlyn's Magic Portfolio Models employ the methods and algorithms described in the Performance Drivers section of this document in combination with funds having asset class allocations as specified by the Model.

    These Models are published online daily by the Company for use by its subscribing financial advisor clients.

    Account Options

    Historical performance is generated by applying the current models to the specified historical period using exchange-provided price data, not from actual traded accounts. Thus, trading performance displayed is hypothetical, only represents historical conditions of the market, and does not include the costs of trading fees, portfolio management fees, account management fees, or financial advisor fees.

    There is no guarantee that such performance will be achieved in the future and there is no representation being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

    Merlyn's Magic

    Investing in securities involves risk of loss that clients should be prepared to bear. An investment's objective, risks, charges, and expenses must be carefully considered before investing. The Merlyn's Magic Portfolio Models are provided "as is" without warranty of any kind. SumGrowth Strategies, LLC, its affiliates and employees make no representation or warranty, expressed or implied as to the suitability, effectiveness, accuracy, availability or completeness of its investment models, and specifically disclaim all other warranties, expressed or implied, including but not limited to implied warranties or fitness for any particular purpose.

    Neither SumGrowth Strategies, LLC, nor any of its affiliates or employees shall be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, punitive, or consequential damages that result in any way from use, non-use, reliance upon the information, or that may result from mistakes, omissions, interruptions, deletions of files, defects in market data, operational delays, transmission delays, failure of equipment, or failure of performance.